Trump demanding $2,000 checks for the American People goes to show he’s willing to move to the left of the GOP on economic policy. If he wants to win in 2024: he has to double-down on populist economics and pivot to the left.
Left-Wing Economic Policy is Popular
This was clearly a popular move, and can win votes in 2024 if he doubles-down on this kind of rhetoric.
55% of Americans support a full-on universal basic income, although only 36% of Republicans feel the same.
According to Michael Wolff (whose words I recommend taking with a grain of salt): Donald Trump privately asked, “Why can’t Medicare simply cover everybody?” This implies support for Medicare for all or a similar universal healthcare plan.
Regardless of if that’s true, what’s for certain is that 70% of Americans support Medicare for all, including 52% of Republicans, according to a Hill.TV/HarrisX poll.
62% of Americans support raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, while 27% support raising it to a lower amount.
72% of Republicans oppose a $15 minimum wage, but that would change quickly if Donald Trump, their favorite President, told them why it would help working-class Americans.
Josh Hawley, one of the Republican Senators from Missouri, recently proposed a plan that would raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, but only for companies that make $1 billion in revenue — this is much more likely to gain the support of the GOP’s base.
It Would Help Trump Flip AZ & GA Back Red
Populist economics are extremely popular among Hispanic and Black voters — the people Trump needs to win over, if he wants to take back Arizona and Georgia.
81% of Hispanics support a UBI, 78% support Medicare for all, and 76% support a $15 minimum wage.
72% of African Americans support a UBI, 87% support Medicare for all, and 89% support a $15 minimum wage.
If Trump supported just one of these policies: he’d win both Arizona and Georgia in a heart-beat. The top-two issues for Hispanic voters in 2020 were the economy and healthcare, for 80% and 76% of respondents respectively.
He’ll Tap Into the Syncretic Vote
According to Echelon Insights: 14% of Americans are left-wing on economic issues, but right-wing on cultural issues — like me.
These syncretic voters, who they call “Populists,” are the most competitive, with no party having a majority of support. Furthermore, the GOP only leads the Democrats by 7%. A majority, however, (53%) voted for Trump in 2020.
This shows that syncretic voters like Trump more than the GOP, but that’ there’s room for improvement — room for Trump to gain votes in 2024.
Remember my last point? 13% of Hispanics and 18% of African Americans fit this description, while only 21% and 12%, respectively, are left-wing on both economic and cultural issues (who they call “Liberals”).
This poll also shows that, despite there only being 14% overlap, 56% of Americans are socially conservative, while 52% are economically liberal.
Trump Already Owns the Republican Party
Donald Trump won the 2020 primaries practically unopposed, and 58% of Republican voters said they’ll vote for Trump in 2024 — the second-place candidate was Mike Pence at only 13%.
Another poll found that 87% of Republicans view Trump favorably. Hilariously, it also found that Mitch McConnell — who shut down Trump’s $2,000 checks — has an approval rating of -15%; yes, that’s a negative, among Republicans!
If Trump moved left on economics: he might lose some GOP voters, but he’d still win the primary — especially in states with open primaries, where members of any (or no) party can vote Trump.
Trump should pivot to the left on economics for 2024, because left-wing economic policy is popular, it’d help him win over the Black and Hispanic support he needs in Georgia and Arizona, and he’d tap into the competitive, syncretic vote.
Furthermore, he’s very likely to win the Republican primary by a considerable margin, so moving to the left won’t hurt his chances of getting the nomination — especially if he can mobilize Democrats and Independents in states with open primaries.
Personally, I’ll vote Trump if he comes out in favor of Medicare for all and a $15 minimum wage, although I don’t live in a swing state.
Amina Dunn. “Most Americans support a $15 federal minimum wage”. Pew Research Center, 22 Apr. 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/04/22/most-americans-support-a-15-federal-minimum-wage/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Dan Mangan. “Trump asked ‘Why can’t Medicare simply cover everybody?’ before pushing Obamacare repeal”. CNBC, 5 Jan. 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/trump-asked-why-cant-medicare-simply-cover-everybody.html. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Data for Progress. “Americans Blame Republicans For $2,000 Checks Failure”. Data for Progress, 1 Jan. 2021, https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/1/01/americans-blame-gop-on-2000-relief-failure. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Data for Progress. “65 Percent of Americans Support Monthly $2,000 Coronavirus Relief Payments”. Data for Progress, 4 Jan. 2021, https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/1/04/65-percent-support-monthly-2000-checks. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Echelon Insights. “June Verified Voter Omnibus – Quadrants”. Echelon Insights, 2021, https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/june-omnibus-quadrants/. Accessed 3 oct. 2021.
Gabriela Schulte. “Poll: Majority of voters now say the government should have a universal basic income program”. The Hill, 14 8. 2020, https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/512099-poll-majority-of-voters-now-say-the-government-should-have-a. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Kyle Olson. “Poll: Donald Trump Favorability +75 Among Republicans, Mitch McConnell Underwater at -15”. Breitbart, 16 Feb. 2021, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/02/16/poll-donald-trump-favorability-75-among-republicans-mitch-mcconnell-underwater-at-15/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Max Greenwood. “Poll: Trump dominates 2024 Republican primary field”. The Hill, 20 Sep. 2021, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/573040-poll-trump-dominates-2024-republican-primary-field. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Jens Manuel and Mark Hugo Lopez. “Hispanic voters say economy, health care and COVID-19 are top issues in 2020 presidential election”. Pew Research Center, 11 Sep. 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/11/hispanic-voters-say-economy-health-care-and-covid-19-are-top-issues-in-2020-presidential-election/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Jon Levine. “Trump repeats demand for $2,000 COVID-19 stimulus checks”. New York Post, 26 Dec. 2020, https://nypost.com/2020/12/26/trump-repeats-demand-for-2000-covid-19-stimulus-checkspresident-trump-repeated-his-demand-for-more-generous-coronavirus-relief-on-saturday-saying-the-600-dollars-agreed-to-by-the-house-and-senate-was/. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Josh Hawley. “Hawley Announces Legislation To Require $15 Minimum Wage for Billion-Dollar Corporations”. Josh Hawley U.S. Senator for Missouri, 26 Feb. 2021, https://www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-announces-legislation-require-15-minimum-wage-billion-dollar-corporations. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.
Julia Manchester. “Majority of Republicans supports ‘Medicare for all,’ poll finds”. The Hill, 22 Oct. 2018, https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412552-majority-of-republicans-say-the-support-medicare-for-all-poll. Accessed 3 Oct. 2021.